GET /v1/probability/search

$0.02realtimetier: utilitycache 60sEngine A — Probability API

Full-text search over the canonical market catalog (Postgres FTS + trigram in live mode). Returns slugs, blended probabilities, and match confidence. Empty result sets return 200 with a suggestion listing valid categories.

Parameters

Example

curl "https://x402-factory.com/v1/probability/search?q=fed%20september%20rate%20cut"

Example response

{
  "data": {
    "results": [
      {
        "slug": "fed-rate-cut-2026-09",
        "question": "Will the Fed cut rates at the September 2026 FOMC meeting?",
        "probability": 0.7301,
        "category": "economics",
        "resolution_date": "2026-09-16",
        "match_confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "slug": "fed-rate-cut-2026-06",
        "question": "Did the Fed cut rates at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?",
        "probability": 0,
        "category": "economics",
        "resolution_date": "2026-06-17",
        "match_confidence": 0.75
      },
      {
        "slug": "ecb-rate-cut-2026-09",
        "question": "Will the ECB cut rates at its September meeting?",
        "probability": 0.5547,
        "category": "economics",
        "resolution_date": "2026-09-10",
        "match_confidence": 0.75
      },
      {
        "slug": "fed-hike-september-2026",
        "question": "Will the Fed raise rates at the September 2026 FOMC meeting?",
        "probability": 0.0488,
        "category": "economics",
        "resolution_date": "2026-09-16",
        "match_confidence": 0.63
      },
      {
        "slug": "fomc-dot-plot-median-shift-2026-09",
        "question": "Will the September 2026 FOMC dot plot shift its median rate path?",
        "probability": 0.5666,
        "category": "economics",
        "resolution_date": "2026-09-16",
        "match_confidence": 0.5
      }
    ]
  },
  "meta": {
    "endpoint": "/v1/probability/search",
    "version": "1.0.0",
    "generated_at": "2026-08-18T22:54:16.967Z",
    "freshness": "realtime",
    "sources": [
      "kalshi",
      "polymarket"
    ],
    "request_id": "req_00000000",
    "docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.search",
    "data_mode": "live"
  }
}

Response schema (data payload)

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "results": {
      "type": "array",
      "items": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "slug": {
            "type": "string"
          },
          "question": {
            "type": "string"
          },
          "probability": {
            "type": "number",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1
          },
          "category": {
            "type": "string"
          },
          "resolution_date": {
            "type": "string"
          },
          "match_confidence": {
            "type": "number",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1
          }
        },
        "required": [
          "slug",
          "question",
          "probability",
          "category",
          "resolution_date",
          "match_confidence"
        ],
        "additionalProperties": false
      }
    },
    "suggestion": {
      "type": "string"
    }
  },
  "required": [
    "results"
  ],
  "additionalProperties": false
}

The platform wraps every payload in an envelope: { "data": …, "meta": { endpoint, version, generated_at, freshness, sources, request_id, docs, data_mode } }.

Payment (x402)

Unpaid requests receive 402 with payment requirements (accepts). Pay $0.02 in USDC on Base per call via an X-PAYMENT header — see docs.x402.org. With PAYMENT_MODE=disabled (local dev) the endpoint is open.

Errors