GET /v1/movers

$0.02realtimetier: datacache 60sEngine A — Probability API

Active markets ranked by absolute blended-probability change over the chosen window, with volume surge ratios. The fastest way for an agent to find where news is landing.

Parameters

Example

curl "https://x402-factory.com/v1/movers?window=24h&limit=10"

Example response

{
  "data": {
    "movers": [
      {
        "slug": "nfp-beat-august-2026",
        "question": "Will the August 2026 jobs report beat consensus expectations?",
        "p_now": 0.4628,
        "p_prev": 0.4196,
        "delta": 0.0432,
        "volume_surge_ratio": 1.02,
        "category": "economics"
      },
      {
        "slug": "solana-above-400-2026-10",
        "question": "Will Solana trade above $400 by October 31?",
        "p_now": 0.2516,
        "p_prev": 0.2878,
        "delta": -0.0362,
        "volume_surge_ratio": 1.01,
        "category": "crypto"
      },
      {
        "slug": "room-temp-superconductor-replicated-2026-12",
        "question": "Will a replicated room-temperature superconductor be published in 2026?",
        "p_now": 0.0421,
        "p_prev": 0.0776,
        "delta": -0.0355,
        "volume_surge_ratio": 0.95,
        "category": "science-tech"
      },
      {
        "slug": "chicago-high-temp-above-100f-2026-07-22",
        "question": "Will the high temperature in Chicago on July 22 be above 100°F?",
        "p_now": 0.1349,
        "p_prev": 0.1025,
        "delta": 0.0324,
        "volume_surge_ratio": 0.93,
        "category": "weather"
      },
      {
        "slug": "ecb-rate-cut-2026-09",
        "question": "Will the ECB cut rates at its September meeting?",
        "p_now": 0.5547,
        "p_prev": 0.5856,
        "delta": -0.0309,
        "volume_surge_ratio": 1.01,
        "category": "economics"
      },
      {
        "slug": "los-angeles-rain-2026-07-25",
        "question": "Will it rain in Los Angeles on July 25?",
        "p_now": 0.0839,
        "p_prev": 0.1142,
        "delta": -0.0303,
        "volume_surge_ratio": 0.98,
        "category": "weather"
      },
      {
        "slug": "crypto-market-cap-5t-2026-12",
        "question": "Will total crypto market cap exceed $5 trillion by year end?",
        "p_now": 0.31,
        "p_prev": 0.3348,
        "delta": -0.0248,
        "volume_surge_ratio": 1,
        "category": "crypto"
      },
      {
        "slug": "ethereum-above-5k-2026-12",
        "question": "Will Ethereum close 2026 above $5,000?",
        "p_now": 0.3988,
        "p_prev": 0.3741,
        "delta": 0.0247,
        "volume_surge_ratio": 0.89,
        "category": "crypto"
      },
      {
        "slug": "seattle-rain-2026-07-23",
        "question": "Will it rain in Seattle on July 23?",
        "p_now": 0.344,
        "p_prev": 0.3678,
        "delta": -0.0238,
        "volume_surge_ratio": 1.04,
        "category": "weather"
      },
      {
        "slug": "fed-hike-september-2026",
        "question": "Will the Fed raise rates at the September 2026 FOMC meeting?",
        "p_now": 0.0488,
        "p_prev": 0.0251,
        "delta": 0.0237,
        "volume_surge_ratio": 1.07,
        "category": "economics"
      }
    ]
  },
  "meta": {
    "endpoint": "/v1/movers",
    "version": "1.0.0",
    "generated_at": "2026-08-18T22:54:16.864Z",
    "freshness": "realtime",
    "sources": [
      "kalshi",
      "polymarket"
    ],
    "request_id": "req_00000000",
    "docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.movers",
    "data_mode": "live"
  }
}

Response schema (data payload)

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "movers": {
      "type": "array",
      "items": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "slug": {
            "type": "string"
          },
          "question": {
            "type": "string"
          },
          "p_now": {
            "type": "number",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1
          },
          "p_prev": {
            "type": "number",
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1
          },
          "delta": {
            "type": "number"
          },
          "volume_surge_ratio": {
            "type": "number"
          },
          "category": {
            "type": "string"
          }
        },
        "required": [
          "slug",
          "question",
          "p_now",
          "p_prev",
          "delta",
          "volume_surge_ratio",
          "category"
        ],
        "additionalProperties": false
      }
    }
  },
  "required": [
    "movers"
  ],
  "additionalProperties": false
}

The platform wraps every payload in an envelope: { "data": …, "meta": { endpoint, version, generated_at, freshness, sources, request_id, docs, data_mode } }.

Payment (x402)

Unpaid requests receive 402 with payment requirements (accepts). Pay $0.02 in USDC on Base per call via an X-PAYMENT header — see docs.x402.org. With PAYMENT_MODE=disabled (local dev) the endpoint is open.

Errors