GET /v1/history/{slug}$0.05delayed_15mtier: deepcache 900sEngine A — Probability API
Hourly or daily blended probability series (per-venue series included where listed) with volume, plus key_moves: buckets where the blend moved at least 5 points. Useful for charting and for change-point context before paying for realtime reads.
| Name | In | Type | Required | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
slug | path | string | yes | |
granularity | query | string | no | (default: "day") — one of "hour", "day" |
from | query | string | no | |
to | query | string | no |
curl "https://x402-factory.com/v1/history/fed-rate-cut-2026-09?granularity=day"
{
"data": {
"series": [
{
"t": "2026-06-04T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7153,
"kalshi_p": 0.7729,
"poly_p": 0.6577,
"volume_usd": 536240.5
},
{
"t": "2026-06-05T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7049,
"kalshi_p": 0.764,
"poly_p": 0.6458,
"volume_usd": 510470.25
},
{
"t": "2026-06-06T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.6989,
"kalshi_p": 0.7557,
"poly_p": 0.642,
"volume_usd": 439384.77
},
{
"t": "2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7117,
"kalshi_p": 0.7725,
"poly_p": 0.6508,
"volume_usd": 394845.63
},
{
"t": "2026-06-08T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7148,
"kalshi_p": 0.7821,
"poly_p": 0.6474,
"volume_usd": 608589.6
},
{
"t": "2026-06-09T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7064,
"kalshi_p": 0.7646,
"poly_p": 0.6482,
"volume_usd": 378064.86
},
{
"t": "2026-06-10T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7078,
"kalshi_p": 0.768,
"poly_p": 0.6475,
"volume_usd": 443166.01
},
{
"t": "2026-06-11T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7054,
"kalshi_p": 0.7639,
"poly_p": 0.6469,
"volume_usd": 391306.7
},
{
"t": "2026-06-12T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7216,
"kalshi_p": 0.7791,
"poly_p": 0.6641,
"volume_usd": 392282.68
},
{
"t": "2026-06-13T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7225,
"kalshi_p": 0.7865,
"poly_p": 0.6584,
"volume_usd": 501477.9
},
{
"t": "2026-06-14T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7268,
"kalshi_p": 0.7941,
"poly_p": 0.6594,
"volume_usd": 493312.83
},
{
"t": "2026-06-15T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.729,
"kalshi_p": 0.7825,
"poly_p": 0.6755,
"volume_usd": 564803.54
},
{
"t": "2026-06-16T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7189,
"kalshi_p": 0.7717,
"poly_p": 0.6661,
"volume_usd": 463379.28
},
{
"t": "2026-06-17T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7157,
"kalshi_p": 0.7561,
"poly_p": 0.6753,
"volume_usd": 416018.1
},
{
"t": "2026-06-18T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.6848,
"kalshi_p": 0.7041,
"poly_p": 0.6655,
"volume_usd": 553030.8
},
{
"t": "2026-06-19T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.701,
"kalshi_p": 0.7208,
"poly_p": 0.6811,
"volume_usd": 556277.8
},
{
"t": "2026-06-20T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7403,
"kalshi_p": 0.7057,
"poly_p": 0.7748,
"volume_usd": 603596.39
},
{
"t": "2026-06-21T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7377,
"kalshi_p": 0.7021,
"poly_p": 0.7734,
"volume_usd": 319887.1
},
{
"t": "2026-06-22T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7343,
"kalshi_p": 0.7008,
"poly_p": 0.7677,
"volume_usd": 380684.74
},
{
"t": "2026-06-23T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7271,
"kalshi_p": 0.7014,
"poly_p": 0.7527,
"volume_usd": 438718.96
},
{
"t": "2026-06-24T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7349,
"kalshi_p": 0.713,
"poly_p": 0.7567,
"volume_usd": 499220.47
},
{
"t": "2026-06-25T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7302,
"kalshi_p": 0.714,
"poly_p": 0.7464,
"volume_usd": 399884.66
},
{
"t": "2026-06-26T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7238,
"kalshi_p": 0.7098,
"poly_p": 0.7378,
"volume_usd": 509527.65
},
{
"t": "2026-06-27T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7317,
"kalshi_p": 0.7229,
"poly_p": 0.7405,
"volume_usd": 435731.04
},
{
"t": "2026-06-28T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.741,
"kalshi_p": 0.7356,
"poly_p": 0.7463,
"volume_usd": 369865.18
},
{
"t": "2026-06-29T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7479,
"kalshi_p": 0.7326,
"poly_p": 0.7631,
"volume_usd": 305517.52
},
{
"t": "2026-06-30T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7357,
"kalshi_p": 0.7248,
"poly_p": 0.7465,
"volume_usd": 518205.01
},
{
"t": "2026-07-01T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7326,
"kalshi_p": 0.7312,
"poly_p": 0.7339,
"volume_usd": 444720
},
{
"t": "2026-07-02T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.6907,
"kalshi_p": 0.7254,
"poly_p": 0.656,
"volume_usd": 561088.25
},
{
"t": "2026-07-03T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.6668,
"kalshi_p": 0.6758,
"poly_p": 0.6578,
"volume_usd": 503839.6
},
{
"t": "2026-07-04T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.6642,
"kalshi_p": 0.6816,
"poly_p": 0.6467,
"volume_usd": 423199.85
},
{
"t": "2026-07-05T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.6765,
"kalshi_p": 0.699,
"poly_p": 0.6539,
"volume_usd": 545253.59
},
{
"t": "2026-07-06T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.6775,
"kalshi_p": 0.6842,
"poly_p": 0.6708,
"volume_usd": 447668.07
},
{
"t": "2026-07-07T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.6834,
"kalshi_p": 0.6894,
"poly_p": 0.6773,
"volume_usd": 536202.32
},
{
"t": "2026-07-08T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.6798,
"kalshi_p": 0.6958,
"poly_p": 0.6637,
"volume_usd": 477304.5
},
{
"t": "2026-07-09T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.6695,
"kalshi_p": 0.6816,
"poly_p": 0.6573,
"volume_usd": 390388.27
},
{
"t": "2026-07-10T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.6799,
"kalshi_p": 0.6959,
"poly_p": 0.6639,
"volume_usd": 478914.78
},
{
"t": "2026-07-11T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.6858,
"kalshi_p": 0.6961,
"poly_p": 0.6754,
"volume_usd": 418450.7
},
{
"t": "2026-07-12T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.6874,
"kalshi_p": 0.7129,
"poly_p": 0.6619,
"volume_usd": 507557.48
},
{
"t": "2026-07-13T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.695,
"kalshi_p": 0.7177,
"poly_p": 0.6724,
"volume_usd": 513165.9
},
{
"t": "2026-07-14T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.6965,
"kalshi_p": 0.7032,
"poly_p": 0.6897,
"volume_usd": 442906.87
},
{
"t": "2026-07-15T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7054,
"kalshi_p": 0.7072,
"poly_p": 0.7036,
"volume_usd": 527339.54
},
{
"t": "2026-07-16T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7182,
"kalshi_p": 0.7171,
"poly_p": 0.7193,
"volume_usd": 368546.51
},
{
"t": "2026-07-17T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7203,
"kalshi_p": 0.7307,
"poly_p": 0.7098,
"volume_usd": 443819.17
},
{
"t": "2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z",
"blend_p": 0.7312,
"kalshi_p": 0.7359,
"poly_p": 0.7264,
"volume_usd": 337864.82
}
],
"key_moves": []
},
"meta": {
"endpoint": "/v1/history/{slug}",
"version": "1.0.0",
"generated_at": "2026-08-18T22:54:16.831Z",
"freshness": "delayed_15m",
"sources": [
"kalshi",
"polymarket"
],
"request_id": "req_00000000",
"docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.history",
"data_mode": "live"
}
}data payload){
"type": "object",
"properties": {
"series": {
"type": "array",
"items": {
"type": "object",
"properties": {
"t": {
"type": "string"
},
"blend_p": {
"type": "number",
"minimum": 0,
"maximum": 1
},
"kalshi_p": {
"type": "number",
"minimum": 0,
"maximum": 1
},
"poly_p": {
"type": "number",
"minimum": 0,
"maximum": 1
},
"volume_usd": {
"type": "number"
}
},
"required": [
"t",
"blend_p",
"volume_usd"
],
"additionalProperties": false
}
},
"key_moves": {
"type": "array",
"items": {
"type": "object",
"properties": {
"t": {
"type": "string"
},
"delta": {
"type": "number"
}
},
"required": [
"t",
"delta"
],
"additionalProperties": false
}
}
},
"required": [
"series",
"key_moves"
],
"additionalProperties": false
}
The platform wraps every payload in an envelope: { "data": …, "meta": { endpoint, version, generated_at, freshness, sources, request_id, docs, data_mode } }.
Unpaid requests receive 402 with payment requirements (accepts). Pay $0.05 in USDC on Base per call via an X-PAYMENT header — see docs.x402.org. With PAYMENT_MODE=disabled (local dev) the endpoint is open.
| Status | Code | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 400 | INVALID_PARAMS | Input failed validation; message lists the offending fields. |
| 404 | NOT_FOUND | No matching resource; suggestion may point to a sibling endpoint. |
| 410 | RESOLVED | Market/event settled; body includes a resolution summary. |
| 503 | STALE_DATA | Upstream feed down; stale data is never silently served beyond 2× cache TTL. |
| 500 | INTERNAL | Our bug. The request_id helps us find it. |